The Rear View Mirror: A Miss in Minnesota

DRIVING HOME FROM CROSS COUNTRY — The Nebraska football season kicked off at the end of a cross country meet on Thursday. It had turned into a decent little night to run especially as the sun went down.

And, then we turned the radio on. I love an old school radio broadcast for a Husker football game. Sometimes wish the football we executed was a good as Greg Sharpe and Damon Benning.

At any rate, Minnesota beat Nebraska 13-10 on Thursday night and it was another one of those “good grief, no way, horrible gut punch” games that we are all so used to at this point, why even write the Mirror.

Well, the Mirror has a few thoughts and, so, why not share them. Right? You know where we stand with Matt Rhule and what we think he’s going to build. No guarantees, but we hold out hope in a world where no one has any patience.

Let’s talk this out a little bit. Sometimes we’ll start with the good, sometimes with the bad, most of the time with the obvious. (Also, hit me on Twitter if you want to chat. It’s like a Husker help line if you need it.)

The brutal end to the first half

Let’s recap, not so, quickly. It’s 3-0 with just over three minutes left before the half. While the Blackshirts have held up fairly well, even while giving up some third down conversions, the offense hadn’t show much until Jeff Sims leads them to the brink of the end zone (maybe we even scored a touchdown).

With 44 seconds left, Sims throws an incomplete pass at the MIN 20 and the Huskers have two timeouts in their pocket. Off that play, the Huskers have to use a timeout for some confusion with the play. A clear sign of a new team and a new staff learning about each other in the heat of battle.

With just one timeout left, they get three straight runs — Sims and two by Gabe Irvin — to get to the doorstep of the end zone. Clock running and under 15 seconds. Nebraska opts to not use a timeout, try to sneak quickly and Ethan Piper commits a false start.

Irvin’s near touchdown is reviewed. (This is a big ugh here. Appeared to be a touchdown, but not enough to overturn. Blandino believed it to be a score.) Nebraska has to use their final timeout to avoid a 10-second runoff. With 11 seconds left the clear strategy from the staff is one throw and if it doesn’t work, kick it.

Interlude: any thoughts to kicking it there and getting the ball tied after half. I probably could argue the scenario both ways and it comes to down what you believe. Rhule picked what he picked.

And, what he picked turned out to be a Sims interception in the back corner of the end zone played masterfully by Minnesota’s Tre’Von Jones. I didn’t happen to see this play until a rewatch of the game, but DB was beside himself in the booth with an apparent throw open to Nate Boerkircher on a hook route at the goal line. (I noticed even Garrett McGuire gave 87 a head tap in the timeout huddle before the play.)

The Mirror would say this. It was closer than it looked, because Jones had split the two Nebraska receivers and read Sims like a book. Sims has to get it in the first row of the student section or throw it at Boerkircher’s knees he did neither. Winning teams make winning plays. Nebraska must reverse this trend.

Nebraska 10, Minnesota 3. 12:16 left

I believe (I hope) that one thing the Nebraska staff did this weekend was review this series of three straight incompletions. I do not mind the shot to Tommi Hill on first down (a good quarterback completes that ball, he was open).

I mind the rest. Shorten the game. Run the ball, get third and manageable. In a game where possessions were invaluable, the thing to do is shorten the game. Had the score been 31-28 there, you probably do something completely different.

The rest that made us put our head in our hands

Amazingly, after the three-and-out the Blackshirts (they really were great) got another stop. Anthony Grant fumbled and 2:21 later (after converting two, TWO fourth downs) it was 10-10. Winning teams make winning plays. Nebraska must reverse this trend.

On their final drive, Nebraska appeared poised to control the clock and possibly line up for a winning field goal. But, with a minute left and Nebraska 10 yards from Tristan Alvano field goal range, Sims forces one that is intercepted.

Minnesota needs to move only 22 yards — we are not discussing enough the 11-yard giveaway run prior to the field goal — and Dragan Kesich kicks a 46-yard field goal for the Gopher win.

Winning teams make winning plays. Nebraska must reverse this trend.

Messages I sent to the group chat

Nebraska had some things go well (also some other things), here are a few I sent to the group chat. C’mon you all have one, don’t lie to us.

“14”. Sent at the beginning of the second half on his kick return. I think Rahmir Johnson needs to see the ball in his hand a little more this week.

“Ed Foley.” Not sure Nebraska has had a better special teams game in, well, I don’t even know. The Johnson kick return, a punting average near 50 yards, and Minnesota did not return one kick to the 25-yard line. Good stuff. Alvano didn’t get much of a chance, but was solid.

“Shot + run.” My pick on the 12 minutes left drive.

“12 has been good.” What a great night from Omar Brown who finished with seven tackles and an interception. Nebraska’s secondary was helping on the run most of the night. (That might change this Saturday)

“PJ has been highly confused most of the night." I am not sure I have ever seen Minnesota abandon the run like they did on Thursday night. For 56-ish minutes, Nebraska out PJ’d, PJ Fleck. And, still lost.

“So good, what a timeout at one-second on the play clock” followed by “GOD.” I think you all know what happened here. Sad face.

“Welp. One play. Seen this movie.” Just prior to Minnesota’s touchdown and after Nebraska’s missed interception on third down. Winning teams make winning plays. Nebraska must reverse this trend.

The Data on Jeff Sims

We are going to have to talk about (read, watch) the play of Jeff Sims.

He’s certainly a dynamic playmaker in the run game. What he was in the passing game, is not going to cut it unless Nebraska gets good enough to average 4-5 yards a carry and throw it less than 12 times a game. (The Mirror would be all for this kind of football.)

On Thursday, the numbers were 37 runs and 19 passes. Nebraska can win a lot, and I mean A LOT, of football games with those numbers. But, you can’t turn it over four times in 56 plays. Sims had 19 carries (three sacks included) and the running backs had 17. (The other run a nifty little end around to Jaylen Lloyd.)

So, let’s add in the three sacks and say Marcus Satterfield called 34 runs and 22 passes. Still okay, but if that true number got to 37-19 or better Nebraska would be in a football game where they had a punchers chance. And, instead of split carries between Sims and the backs, maybe the backs get a few more (especially Irvin). Also, I understand we are running some “read” plays and most of them seemed to be read fairly well.

To the data: Satterfield will be a genius if he can get Sims to 65%. Sims threw 23 interceptions in 25 games at Georgia Tech. He also averaged 25 throws per game as a Yellow Jacket and completed just 57.5% of his passes. You can see the tweet above is a huge jump.

That 11-for-19 performance on Thursday? 57.9%. Catch the drift here? If he does that with just one interception, Nebraska wins the football game. Winning teams make winning plays. Nebraska must reverse this trend.

Quickly on Colorado

The Buffs should get plenty of love this week, but they’ll likely play a much different opponent on Saturday. It says here, Nebraska’s defense should be much better than TCU’s (also Colorado’s offense much better than Minnesota’s).

Keys: control the ball, win the turnover margin, be great in special teams and keep the game under 30. Otherwise, it will be another long week. Many outcomes are possible in Boulder.

State College Rundown

The Mirror is committed to giving you a quick rundown of small college football across the state here as well. Who knows, we might make it to a few games this year, too. Here is what we had last week.

Division II Thursday: All three Nebraska NCAA-II teams played on Thursday night. Wayne State got 276 yards of total offense and three touchdown from Bennington grad Nick Bohn in a 31-23 win over Minnesota State-Morehead. 

Meanwhile in Oklahoma, Central Oklahoma played keep away from Nebraska-Kearney and new coach Ryan Held in a 24-21 win. UCO held a 38:23-21:37 advantage in time of possession.

In Quincy, Illinois, Chadron State sprinted to a 22-0 lead but needed a Tommy Thomas 1-yard touchdown catch from Heath Beemiller to beat Quincy, 35-34.

Saturday session: Down 14 (again), the Hastings College Broncos rallied (again) for a 24-17 overtime win over Dakota Wesleyan. HC did the same in their first game for an overtime win over Peru State.

In Fremont, Garrison Beach threw for 259 yards as Midland is off to a 2-0 start with a 38-17 win over Jamestown. At Concordia in Seward, the Bulldogs put a scare into defending national champion, and preseason NAIA No. 1, Northwestern (Iowa) before falling 48-35. NAIA No. 25 Dordt cruised past Doane, 49-7. Peru State fell to 0-2 with a 38-17 road loss to Baker (Kansas).

In NCAA Division III action, Nebraska Wesleyan got 217 yards passing from Northwest grad Carter Terry in a 19-7 win over Austin College.